Grain consultancy Sovecon said on Wednesday it had cut its forecast for Russia's 2026/27 grain exports to 44.7 million metric tons, down from 49.4 million tons seen earlier, warning that Azov and Black Sea ports will remain shut until 2027.

Both Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, and Ukraine saw a drastic reduction in grain exports due to tit-for-tat attacks on vessels and ports in the Black Sea over recent months.

In the previous export season, almost 90% of Russia's seaborne grain exports were shipped through the Black Sea.

"The downgrade follows continued disruptions to exports from Russia's southern ports and a lack of visible progress toward an agreement that could restore normal navigation in the Black Sea," the consultancy said in a statement.

"Sovecon now expects normal port operations in the Azov-Black Sea region to resume no earlier than 2027," it added. The consultancy lowered its Russian wheat export forecast by 4.7 million tons to 36.7 million tons in 2026/27.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan is leading an international effort by grain-importing countries to restore Black Sea grain trade. India, Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries are also involved.

Reuters analysis last week showed that Russia could quickly restart up to 80% of its grain terminal capacity in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov if diplomatic efforts to halt mutual attacks by Russia and Ukraine result in a ceasefire.

(Reuters)